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Well. On one hand, Australia's long-running bid to organize the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara refused to yield. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

The Turkish president is seen as aligned with the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his administration led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. It's worth a try.