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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the greatest shock.

Yet the current field is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners declining and recent also-rans improving collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the kind of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still