🔗 Share this article

Within the widespread uncertainty following the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.